Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Reviewed 14 Nov, 2017
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, 2015, Crown Publishers, New York, NY.
If you have anything to do with forecasting, be it doing, using, defining, and especially paying for it, this is a great book to read. I do have to admit that it is somewhat scary to realize how much they can actually predict these days. The authors talk about recent advances in forecasting which point to the problems with many of the current methods and new, highly-successful tracks for the field. There is a new breed of superforecasters who are, for the most part, slightly intelligent but often ordinary people. Thanks to Michael McNulty for this recommendation.